Weekly Outlook & Review
Week of November 20th, 2023
Good afternoon folks,
It was a rough week for some and a great week for others. This week, the market made a critical move when we broke out of a multi-month bull flag and surged far higher. We ran over 100 points in a single day on Tuesday, with CPI as the catalyst. We then stayed in a ~30-point range with very choppy price action.
The last two weeks of the market have been ranging with a huge CPI print sandwiched in the middle. Not the easiest price action to trade, but we pulled through. Here’s a recap:
Outlook for Next Week
I trade the S&P 500 index daily and use supply/demand levels as my main strategy. I focus on a handful of core setups within these levels (found here) which typically appear 1-3 times a day. I take one or two trades a day, targeting gains of 10-30 points. My objective is to maintain consistency and leverage it, rather than trying to get as many points as possible.
Last week, while most were loading on puts into CPI, I noted that November 2023 and November 2023 were remarkably similar:
Seasonality-wise, it aligns perfectly. It’s almost at the exact same time of the year. In both cases, we had a 300+ point rally in a few days, followed by an extended period of chop. After we broke this consolidation in 2020, we slowly grinded higher for the rest of the year.
Bulls put this in the fast lane with CPI, where we instantly shot 100 points higher. Now, the next major move is set to occur - and everyone is expecting it. This is not ideal for such a move to occur, and it’s likely we see some trickery and deception before it happens. The key level is 4490. Above 4490, bulls can keep rallying 70-150 points. Below 4490, we can easily drop 100+ points.
This is not a precise prediction, just a general outlook of where price action could go next.
That’s all for this week’s outlook. All of this will be updated and executed in real-time in The High-Roller Room (click here to get access). Stay sharp.
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