We Don't Have Much Time Left...
If someone wants to learn how to trade today, they have every advantage over someone who wanted to learn how to trade 10 years ago. We have zero commissions, endless online education, mentorship, prop firms, and $1.00 accounts. Just a decade ago, none of this existed.
You often needed thousands of dollars to open an account, education was harder to find, and commissions were expensive. It was a steep slope to climb unless you had a lot of money. Beginners today have all the advantages in the world, except for one…
The Timer Has Started
Retail trading is not a new concept. It’s been existing for decades. If you wanted to become a trader 20 years ago, you could fail at it for 10 years, then turn around and finally start making tons of money. It often took traders 7-10 years before they became profitable. In between was lots of trial and error before truly understanding the market and finding something that worked.
There was not really any time pressure to learn quickly. Whether you learned in 5 years or 10 years, you would have still come out on top eventually and lived a successful, happy life. Sure, it was harder to learn back then, but it still ended up working.
We no longer have this luxury. Trading has never been this easy before, but it will also never be this easy again. With the extremely quick progress of AI, we have no idea what the world will look like in one year, let alone ten. We’ve opened Pandora’s box. We’ve started advancing irreversibly. It will impact every field, especially finance and trading.
The markets are already dominated by algorithms. New AI technology will only greatly enhance these algorithms. We won’t know how the market will look if AI can start trading better than humans. Will we get more volatility? Will the market move in straight lines? Will we stay the same?
We can try guessing, but no one knows for sure. The only thing we know is that experienced traders will be able to handle this environment better than new traders. As you gradually gain experience in trading, there is a point where everything will click. This is when a great sense of calm comes over you because you know exactly what you need to do to reach your goals. You “get” it.
Until traders reach this point, they don’t have an intuitive understanding of the market, and it’s impossible to make sense of it. If the market gets harder to read in the future, you might not be able to reach this level of intuition.
The Window of Opportunity
Think of trading as a bag of cash underneath a train at a station. In the past, you could use some tools to extend and reach under the train to grab the bag. You could do this any time you wanted, there was no rush. If you failed once, you could try a hundred more times.
Now, the train has started moving. If you want to reach the bag, you have a limited window of opportunity to do so, in between the wheels of the train. As time passes, the train moves faster and the time between each of the wheels gets shorter.
This is our current predicament. It’s easy to learn to trade, but we have a limited amount of time to do so. We don’t know what’s at the end of the train. It might rip the bag up and ruin it. The best time to learn to trade is now. We don’t know what the future holds, and opportunities might be completely different or nonexistent. Get the bag as soon as you can. Don’t waste time.
Disclaimer: Investing in stocks, bonds, futures, options, and other securities carries significant risks. Some or all capital may be lost. With leveraged instruments, losses may exceed initial capital. Past performance of a security does not guarantee future results. Any content from this newsletter should not be taken as financial or investment advice, but for informational and entertainment purposes only. This newsletter simply shares my personal opinions and notes. Consult with a registered financial/investment professional. This newsletter and its authors are not licensed financial/investment professionals. By reading and using this newsletter, as well as any other publications, you are agreeing to these terms.