Market Plan for September 20th, 2023

Ready for FOMC?

Good evening folks,

We had another indecision day as the market dropped this morning, then recovered almost all of its losses in the afternoon. We opened near 4450, quickly fell to 4430, made a low of 4422 (critical level), and then rallied back to 4450.

We captured the entire day’s move, with both the downside and the upside. We made 20 points in the morning move, from our plan yesterday.

Below 4450, we are targeting 4430.

At 4422, it seemed like sellers did not have enough conviction to bring it below that level, meaning we were due for a bounce. I bought it at the low, taking it 30 points back to 4450. I suspected this would happen, saying this in yesterday’s post:

If I were inclined one way, it would be slightly bullish. Price action is difficult to read, but it seems like the market will not make a major move until FOMC, which is on Wednesday. This may be what finally gets us out of the range. Until that happens, there is more resistance to the downside than to the upside. It’s easier for the price to hover inside the range than it is to make new monthly lows.

Recap:

Tomorrow is FOMC, which will likely push us strongly in one direction. Will we hit 4400 or 4500 first? Let’s see with tomorrow’s plan is: