Market Plan for October 2nd, 2023

A bear trap, followed by a bull trap

Good evening folks,

Last Friday was an unusually volatile day. We opened high at 4336 after a large overnight run, then dropped down to 4277 (key level given by me last week), and finally ran back up to 4300.

I scaled out my longs near 4332 after it was clear the market had no intention of moving higher. We failed to quickly move up at the open, and this was a sign that bulls had reached their limit. It was not the place to stall. I also tweeted that I leaned short, but wasn’t going to take the trade because the risk/reward wasn’t good.

I was waiting for it to move higher to properly position myself, but it didn’t come. That’s where discipline comes in. Even though I was 99% sure we were going down, I still didn’t take the trade because the R/R setup wasn’t there.

We’ve got a lot happening this week. Let’s make tomorrow’s plan to see where we end up: